Allan Katz and Danae Columbus: Mary Landrieu’s dream of winning in the November primary may be unrealistic

Allan Katz and Danae Columbus

Let’s start with some full disclosure — Danae will be among the dozens of table captains at Senator Mary Landrieu’s women’s fundraising brunch later in October. It will be a star-studded affair with well more than a thousand women present — many of whom have been devoted to Mary for decades. In fact, Danae can remember walking in Broadmoor with a much younger Mary Landrieu during her first race for the Louisiana Legislature.

Fast forward a few decades to this week, when you might have heard one of the state’s leading elected officials say that he is concerned about the unwanted scrutiny and negative attention Louisiana will receive during a very divisive Senate run-off campaign. The nation’s eyes will be watching us as PACs spend millions to damage opposing candidates.

Even with Mary’s traditional luck in pulling narrow election day victories out of the proverbial rabbit’s hat, we think it will be hell-hard for her to forge a clear victory on Tuesday, Nov. 4. We savored this week’s poll that showed Mary pulling ahead of Bill Cassidy. But we also looked at the strength of Rob Maness’ numbers. With two well-financed Republicans and associated Republican PAC dollars tearing away at her, it’s hard for us to see how Mary can avoid a runoff. It also doesn’t help Mary that Cassidy is avoiding all those televised debates.

Not to say that Mary is not investing in vote gathering with every niche market possible. Not to say that the Democratic Party isn’t engaged in voter-registration efforts. Not to say that Democrats aren’t outspending Republicans on the ground in key Senate races around the country, reaching out to touch likely voters through canvassing and publicize early-voting options.

The fact remains that Republicans will probably outspend Democrats in Louisiana and across the country in television and radio which could offset any ground advantage the Democrats have here. Also, numerous polls have shown that Republicans are more engaged in these mid-term elections and more likely to vote than Democrats.

What looked like a bumper crop of robust metro New Orleans elections which could have been helpful to Mary in bringing out voters, has turned into a much smaller affair after many races ended early due to opponents withdrawing. Mary is lucky that her black-sheep cousin Gary Landrieu survived numerous court challenges and is still in the congressional race against 2nd District Congressman Cedric Richmond. While Gary Landrieu has no chance of winning, Richmond is expected to mount a significant ground effort on November 4th for himself and the candidates he is supporting which will surely benefit Mary Landrieu.

Overall, fewer voters are expected to go to the polls this November than in 2012. Louisiana’s voter turnout could hover around 45%, based on previous turnout in mid-term elections.

Another reason middle-class voters might stay home is the state of the economy on a national level. The Wall Street Journal recently reported a study that clearly spelled out how annual household income has declined for every age cohort since 1999, and that adjusted for household size it has fallen by about $5,000 overall. Incomes have declined for all races (African-Americans have been hit hardest) and nearly as much for married couples as for female-headed households. Unmarried men have fared the worst. If you are an unmarried African-American male in New Orleans, life and job prospects are probably not very good — which has more than a little to do with our escalating crime problem.

America’s middle class is clearly being squeezed. The Center for American Progress reported last week that since 2000 with an adjustment for inflation, rents have risen nationally by 7 percent (much higher in New Orleans since Katrina); medical care by 21 percent, child care by 24 percent and higher education by 62 percent.

Overall, inflation-adjusted median household incomes nationally are 9 percent lower than they were in 1999. These figures will not change without a new national focus on boosting the rate of growth and job creation as well as incentives for businesses to boost wages.

If too many Louisiana voters who are dismayed with the state of the economy as well as President Obama’s policies including “Obamacare” come out to vote for either Cassidy or Maness on Nov. 4, it makes Mary Landrieu’s chances of winning in the primary even harder.

We have not — nor never will — give up on U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu, who has done a great job for Louisiana during her years in Congress, as State Treasurer and in the Louisiana House of Representatives. We just can’t see a clear path to a runoff-free November victory for her right now.

Allan Katz spent 25 years as a political reporter and columnist at The Times-Picayune, and is now editor of the Kenner Star and host of several televsion programs, including the Louisiana Newsmaker on Cox Cable. Danae Columbus is executive producer of Louisiana Newsmaker, and has had a 30-year career in public relations, including stints at City Hall and the Dock Board. They both currently work for the Orleans Parish School Board. Among the recent candidates who have been represented by their public relations firm are City council members Stacy Head and Jared Brossett, Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne, former Sheriff Charles Foti and former Councilwoman Cynthia Hedge-Morrell.