In his apparent victory Saturday night in the runoff for the District B seat on the New Orleans City Council, Jay H. Banks picked up a few voting precincts that Seth Bloom had won in the primary, in addition to holding on to his base and winning all the areas that had supported third-place finisher Timothy David Ray, an analysis of voting patterns shows.
In the primary, Bloom won 24 precincts outright and led the six-way race in 19 more — a total of 43 precincts where he was the frontrunner out of the 76 in the district. On Saturday, however, Bloom ended up winning only 35 precincts — not only being overtaken by Banks in some that were contested in the primary, but losing some that he had previously won.
In Ward 10 Precinct 3 (which includes parts of the Irish Channel, Lower Garden District, and River Garden development), for example, Bloom had led with 31 percent followed closely by Banks at 28 percent and Ray at 26 percent. In the runoff, Banks won the precinct convincingly with 61 percent of the vote.
Two other precincts along the river, Ward 12 Precinct 4 and Ward 13 Precinct 1 (along Tchoupitoulas on either side of Napoleon), flipped from Bloom to Banks in similar fashion.
In Ward 12 Precincts 9 and 11 (along Dryades Street near Cohen High School) and in Ward 13 Precinct 13 (the Freret commercial corridor), Bloom had also led in the runoff with about 40 percent of the vote. In the runoff, Banks won all three with margins of slightly more than 50 percent.
In Ward 12 Precinct 3 (between Magazine and the river around Constantinople Street, where members of the New Orleans Coalition held a fundraiser for Banks a week before the election), Bloom had taken 53 percent of the vote in the primary. In Saturday’s runoff, however, Banks won 51 percent of the vote.
Much of Banks’ victory can likely be found in Mid-City. In the primary, no candidate won any precinct outright, but Bloom led in three, Banks led in two, Ray led in one and one was an exact tie between Bloom and Banks. On Saturday, Banks won seven of the either, and the weakest of those seven precincts still gave Banks a healthy seven-point lead.
Ray’s supporters can also be seen to have been helpful in swinging the election to Banks. In the primary, Ray led in three precincts — one in Broadmoor, one in Gert Town, and the aforementioned Mid-City precinct. In the runoff, Banks picked up two of the three — those in Gert Town and Mid-City. Bloom managed to win the precinct in Broadmoor, the sole precinct he won in the runoff where he had not led in the primary.
Echoes of LaToya
In his victory, Banks drew on nearly identical areas for support as the current occupant of the District B seat, mayor-elect LaToya Cantrell, did in her first election to the City Council, her victory over Dana Kaplan in a runoff in December 2012. Cantrell won nearly 53.7 percent of the vote, slightly more than Banks’ 50.4 percent, but with a strong base in Broadmoor and Central City plus support from the Mid-City and riverside precincts.
Only minor differences show in the precincts won by Cantrell and Banks. She won three that he lost — one on the river and two in Broadmoor. Meanwhile, he won four that she lost — two on the river, one on St. Charles Avenue, and one in Mid-City:
- Along the river, Cantrell narrowly won the Lower Garden District but lost the Irish Channel. Banks did the opposite, narrowly losing the large Ward 1 Precinct 1 around Annunciation Square but winning the two Irish Channel precincts just upriver. Of the next eight precincts moving upriver, Banks won five of the same six that Cantrell did.
- Cantrell lost the five precincts just north of St. Charles Avenue between Jefferson Avenue and First Street. Banks lost four of the same five, picking up one more than Cantrell.
- Cantrell and Banks both lost the same two precincts along Fontainebleau Drive.
- Banks, however, lost the two precincts north of South Claiborne Avenue between Napoleon and Jefferson, whereas Cantrell had won them decisively.
- Banks picked up one more Mid-City precinct than Cantrell did.
The bellwether precinct — that with the closest results to the overall total for District B — was Ward 12 Precinct 9 (near the Martin Wine Cellar on Baronne Street) where Banks won 51.2 percent of the vote. His total across District B as a whole was 50.4 percent.