Feb 022014
 
A precinct-level analysis of Mayor Mitch Landrieu's re-election victory by Brian Denzer. (click for larger PDF version)

A precinct-level analysis of Mayor Mitch Landrieu’s re-election victory by Brian Denzer. (click for larger PDF version)

Mayor Mitch Landrieu swept to re-election Saturday with 64 percent of the vote, easily outpacing his two challengers in his bid for a second term — but his support was not as evenly distributed across the city as it was four years ago, according to a map of precinct-level results.

A map of Saturday’s results in the mayor’s race from the Secretary of State’s office by independent data analyst Brian Denzer shows that Landrieu enjoyed tremendous support in most of Uptown — winning more than 90 percent of the vote in some 14th Ward precincts around Audubon Park — though the results were slightly more mixed in some parts of Hollygrove and Central City. Support for Landrieu was also very strong in Lakeview, Mid-City, the Central Business District, French Quarter, Marigny and Bywater, and almost all of Algiers.

Gentilly and the Seventh Ward showed varying results at the precinct level — in some, Landrieu’s support was similar to his results citywide, while in others, Landrieu fell below the 50 percent mark, with higher tallies for Judge Michael Bagneris.

It is east of the Industrial Canal, however, where the votes most strongly favor Bagneris. The former judge won or split most of the precincts in the Lower Ninth Ward and many in New Orleans East as well.

Bagneris has blamed his loss in part on low turnout, and Denzer notes that 5,000 fewer votes were cast in 2014 than in 2010. However, even if all 5,000 of those votes had been in Bagneris’ column, Landrieu would have still easily avoided a runoff.

On the other hand, Landrieu’s victory was “not the landslide that Landrieu won in 2010,” Denzer notes, in which Landrieu won every precinct except one in Venetian Isles that went to John Georges.

Out of the city’s 366 precincts:

  • Landrieu won more than 50 percent of the vote in 266 of them.
  • In 31 more lean-Landrieu precincts, no candidate got more than 50 percent of the vote, but Landrieu received the most, usually between 45 and 50 percent of the vote.
  • Landrieu and Bagneris tied exactly in seven precincts.
  • There were 22 “lean-Bagneris” precincts, where no candidate reached more than 50 percent of the vote, but Bagneris led.
  • Bagneris won more than 50 percent of the vote in 40 precincts, the majority of which were in the Ninth and Seventh Wards. Four were in Central City and Uptown, and two were on the Westbank.
  • Danatus King did not win any precincts. His strongest showing was in the Ward 9, Precinct 5, where he won 15.7 percent of the vote.

The bellwether precinct — with results that most closely matched the citywide result of Landrieu’s 63.6 percent, Bagneris’s 33.3 percent and King’s 3.1 percent — was Ward 11, Precinct 2, which runs along the river in the Irish Channel, where Landrieu won 64.1 percent, Bagneris won 32.9 percent and King won 2.9 percent. Similar was Gentilly’s Ward 8, Precinct 29, where Landrieu won 63.1 percent, Bagneris won 33.9 and King won 2.9 percent.

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