Dec 092012

In this graphic, red represents precincts won by LaToya Cantrell with 80 percent of the vote or more. Orange are those she won by 56 to 79 percent, and light orange are those she won by 50.1 percent to 55 percent. Light green are those Dana Kaplan won by 50.1 percent to 55 percent, and dark green are those Kaplan won by 56 to 79 percent. (Graphic by Robert Morris,

In her runoff victory Saturday night, LaToya Cantrell not only won more precincts than Dana Kaplan, Cantrell also won her best precincts by far wider margins than Kaplan did, an analysis of the results shows.

Cantrell won 45 precincts outright, compared to Kaplan’s 33 (they tied exactly in one precinct, Ward 4 Precinct 6 in Mid-City, with 12 votes apiece there). Out of those, however, Cantrell won 24 precincts by 80 percent of the vote or more, while Kaplan did not win any by that margin — her best precinct, Ward 3 Precinct 1 in the Central Business District, gave her 79 percent of the vote.

Cantrell’s campaign was based on her record of leadership in Broadmoor and the Broad Street corridor, and those neighborhoods formed the core of her high-margin precincts. Her support was similarly strong in the parts of Milan and Central City closest to South Claiborne Avenue, and the Gert Town and Treme precincts closest to Broad Street.

Those wide margins overwhelmed other factors that might have played a determining role, such as turnout or geography.

Turnout | Across District B, about 38 percent of the voters showed up at the polls compared to the Nov. 6 election. Of those precincts in which more than 40 percent of November’s voters returned in December — in other words, those in which more voters than average returned to the polls — Kaplan won 23 precincts, compared to Cantrell’s 14.

Geography | In the Nov. 6 election, St. Charles Avenue served as a boundary line of sorts — Cantrell won almost all the precincts on the lakeside of St. Charles; Eric Strachan won most of those along St. Charles itself; Kaplan was strongest along the Magazine Street corridor; and those closest to the river were generally split.

That didn’t really change on Saturday. Neither Cantrell nor Kaplan lost any of their own precincts, and Kaplan picked up all the precincts Strachan originally won outright. Kaplan also picked up some of the split precincts between St. Charles and Dryades, while Cantrell picked up some of the split precincts along the river.

Bellwethers | The precinct that had the closest results to District B as a whole was Ward 13 Precinct 12, a residential section adjacent to the Freret corridor bounded by Jefferson, Upperline, Danneel and LaSalle. That precinct’s results were 53.68 percent for Cantrell, almost exactly the same as her 53.71 percent margin across District B.

Also very close the district-wide result were a series of precincts along the river — Ward 13 Precinct 1, Ward 12 Precinct 3 and Ward 11 Precinct 2 — which all gave Cantrell 53 percent of the vote as well.

  4 Responses to “Election analysis: Solid base surrounding Broadmoor propelled Cantrell to victory”

  1. This is excellent Robert, thank you!

  2. I hope we will see more of this type analysis in the future…..thank you for a good job!

  3. Can I get this graphic as a Christmas ornament?

  4. RM/UM-
    Take a bow for once- yes this is your job, but this kind of stuff gives a noise to that trees falls in the woods…
    This was one of those rare no-loose elections with 2 (3 if you include the primaries) well deserving candidates, but I’m happy and proud to see my neighbor win.
    Best from Freret,
    Andy Brott

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