Nov 072012

Orange precincts represent those won by LaToya Cantrell; green by Dana Kaplan; blue by Eric Strachan. Those in which no single candidate approached 50 percent of the vote but two rose above 33 percent are shown with a diagonal split; those in which three or more fell below 33 percent are shown in yellow. The maroon district was led by Marlon “Buck” Horton. (map by Robert Morris based on data from the Louisiana Secretary of State’s office.)

LaToya Cantrell dominated the precincts in a large swath of District B — including her home neighborhood of Broadmoor, as well as Central City and the Mid-City portions of the district — to cinch nearly 40 percent of the vote in Tuesday’s election, according to an early analysis of precinct-level results.

Dana Kaplan, meanwhile, consistently came in second-place in precincts in nearly every precinct won by either of her rivals, Cantrell or Strachan, to earn 31 percent of the vote and a place in the Dec. 8 runoff.

Cantrell won outright with more than 50 percent of the vote in 28 of District B’s 81 precincts, more than a third, and led the field in 11 more. In some large precincts, she garnered 70 or even 80 percent of the vote, winning hundreds more votes than Kaplan or Strachan.

Kaplan, by contrast, reached 50 percent of the vote in only two precincts — fewer even than third-place finisher Strachan, who won 50 percent in seven precincts. She led in many of the districts where no candidate took 50 percent, however, and (perhaps more importantly to reaching the runoff) finished in second-place in every precinct won by Cantrell or Strachan except two.

Although Horton ultimately finished with only 6 percent of the vote, he did lead in one precinct, about a block from his restaurant in the 10th Ward from which he takes his moniker, “10th Ward Buck.”

Broad geographic patterns also emerge in the results. All of Cantrell’s victories were on the lake side of St. Charles Avenue. Strachan performed most strongly along the St. Charles Avenue corridor, and Kaplan’s strongest precincts kept closer to Magazine Street. The precincts that border the river were nearly all split among the candidates.

The precinct with the results that most resembled the district as a whole was 13-13, which covers the 16 blocks on either side of the Freret commercial corridor. There, Cantrell won just shy of 41 percent, Kaplan won 31, Strachan won 24 and Horton won 5.

About 46.6 percent of registered District B voters cast ballots in the contest, far short of the 62.8-percent turnout citywide in the Presidential election.

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